1. How did SpaceX get here?

SpaceX was founded in 2002 by Elon Musk with a goal many considered unrealistic: making humanity a multi-planet species.

Early years were brutal:

• First three Falcon 1 launches failed.
• SpaceX nearly ran out of money in 2008.
• NASA contracts helped save the company.
• Falcon 9 became the dominant commercial launch vehicle.
• Reusable boosters dramatically lowered launch costs.
• Starlink created a recurring-revenue business rather than relying solely on launches.

Many investors today view SpaceX as three businesses combined:

1. Launch services
2. Starlink satellite internet
3. Future Starship-enabled infrastructure

2. Why Starlink matters so much

Many people think SpaceX is mainly a rocket company.

The reality is that Starlink appears to be the financial engine.

Recent IPO disclosures indicated that the Connectivity segment (primarily Starlink) generated substantial profitability and cash flow growth, while much of the company’s losses were associated with aggressive investments in AI and future projects.

In other words:

• Rockets are exciting.
• Starlink pays many of the bills.

That’s why many analysts say the IPO is actually a bet on Starlink as much as Starship.

3. What obstacles remain?

Technical risk

The biggest risk is still:

Starship

SpaceX’s long-term vision assumes Starship becomes fully reusable and flies frequently.

If Starship succeeds:

• Moon missions
• Mars cargo
• Massive satellite deployments
• Space manufacturing
• Point-to-point Earth transport

become much more feasible.

If Starship struggles, many of the most ambitious projections become harder to justify.

Regulatory risk

SpaceX faces:

• FAA launch approvals
• Environmental challenges
• Spectrum disputes
• International regulatory issues

Competition

Competition comes from:

• Amazon Project Kuiper
• Rocket Lab
• National space programs
• Future Chinese launch systems

4. How does an IPO actually work?

Many first-time investors were surprised by the difference between:

• IPO price = $135
• First trade = about $150

Here’s why.

Step 1: Underwriters set the IPO price

Banks gather orders from large investors.

They estimate:

• Demand
• Company value
• Market conditions

SpaceX chose $135/share and sold approximately 555.6 million shares, raising about $75 billion.

Step 2: Shares are allocated

Before public trading begins:

• Institutions receive allocations.
• Some retail investors receive allocations.
• Employees may receive shares.

Step 3: Public trading begins

When Nasdaq opens:

• Buyers and sellers meet.
• Supply and demand determine the first trade.

Demand was so strong that the first market-clearing price was around $150, not $135.

Think of it this way:

If a concert ticket is sold for $135 but 100 people immediately want it, the resale price may instantly become $150.

The market opening price reflects that demand.

5. Why was this IPO so different?

Several reasons stand out.

Size

This was reported as the largest IPO ever, raising roughly $75 billion.

Retail participation

Retail investors received a much larger allocation than is typical.

Reports indicated roughly 30% of the offering was directed toward retail investors versus a much smaller percentage in many traditional IPOs.

Elon factor

Few CEOs have the public following of Elon Musk.

Many Americans know him from:

• Tesla
• SpaceX
• Social media
• AI ventures

For some investors, buying SPCX felt like participating in a technological movement rather than merely purchasing a stock.

6. Why did so many first-time IPO investors participate?

Several forces converged:

Fear of missing out

Many people remember:

• Tesla’s rise
• NVIDIA’s rise
• Amazon’s rise

They don’t want to miss what they believe could be the next transformational company.

Space captures imagination

Most IPOs sell:

• Insurance
• Software
• Banks

SpaceX sells:

• Rockets
• Satellites
• Moon missions
• Mars

That story is emotionally compelling.

Easier brokerage access

Brokerages lowered barriers and made IPO participation easier than in previous decades.

Social media

The IPO became a national conversation.

Research on IPOs generally shows that strong social-media enthusiasm often correlates with larger first-day pops.

7. Did Elon Musk sell many shares?

Public reports indicate that the IPO included sales from existing shareholders as well as newly issued shares, allowing early investors, employees, and insiders to obtain liquidity. Thousands of employees became millionaires as a result of the offering.

What’s more important than the exact number is this:

Elon still appears to retain a massive ownership stake after the IPO and remains closely aligned with SpaceX’s future success.

8. Why did the stock close at $160.95?

The IPO price reflected what underwriters believed would allow all shares to be sold.

The market price reflected what investors were willing to pay once trading began.

The difference was essentially:

Demand exceeded supply.

Shares opened around $150 and finished the first day at $160.95.

9. What is the bull case for SPCX?

The most optimistic investors believe:

• Starlink becomes the dominant global satellite network.
• Starship succeeds.
• Space-based communications explode.
• SpaceX develops new businesses not yet reflected in current revenue.
• AI and aerospace become increasingly integrated.

In that world, today’s valuation could eventually look reasonable.

10. What is the bear case?

The skeptics argue:

• Valuation is already extremely high relative to revenue.
• Expectations may be impossible to satisfy.
• History shows many IPOs experience significant drawdowns after the initial excitement fades.
• Starship execution risk remains substantial.

The biggest takeaway

The most important thing about SPCX is that investors are not really buying today’s launch business.

They are buying a vision of what SpaceX might become over the next 10–20 years:

• Global internet infrastructure
• Lunar logistics
• Mars transportation
• Space manufacturing
• AI-enabled aerospace systems

Whether SPCX becomes one of the greatest investments of the next generation will likely depend far more on the success of Starship and Starlink than on whether an investor bought at $135, $150, or $161 during the first week of trading.

Details of the video below, in italics:

Most people think SpaceX is raising money for rockets. Elon Musk says the real goal is something much bigger. I’m conducting research on how private wealth decision-makers are dealing with AI dramatically changing long-term capital, business and family wealth decisions, in the video published on June 4, 2026, by Brighter with Herbert, as “JUST RECORDED: ELon Musk Interviewed by JP Morgan’s Jamie Dimon“, below: