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Did Climate Change Contribute To Icing & Flat Spin Of Plane Crash In Brazil

by Susan Sun Nunamaker · August 8, 2024

Dear Friends & Neighbors,

Spin, an aggravated stall and autorotation. Source: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Spin%E2%80%94an_aggravated_stall_and_autorotation..JPG, Attribution: FAA, Public Domain license: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/Commons:Licensing#Material_in_the_public_domain, Presented at: WindermereSun.com

Windermere Blue Sunset (credit: Windermere Sun-Susan Sun Nunamaker)

(Please click on red links & note magenta)

A tragic plane crash occurred in Brazil on August 8, 2024, involving a Voepass Linhas Aéreas flight. The aircraft was an ATR 72-500, a twin-engine turboprop. It was on a domestic route from Cascavel in the state of Paraná to Guarulhos International Airport in São Paulo. Unfortunately, the plane crashed near the city of Vinhedo, São Paulo, in a residential area, killing all 62 -1 people on board (one person did not board on time and became most thankful for being being tardy on August 8, 2024), which included 58 passengers and four crew members. From the information available, it seems the plane was attempting to land at the Guarulhos International Airport, but it crashed before reaching the runway. The weird thing about this crash is that the plane was in a flat spin before it crashed.

Summarized by Rami Ismail at x.com, for a flat spin to establish, a number of things need to happen in succession:

The airplane needs to develop a full stall.
The airplane needs to be uncoordinated, so it’ll spins on stall.
The response to the spin needs to be to pull the nose up.

Described by ChatGPT, a flat spin, in italics, below:

A flat spin is a dangerous and often unrecoverable condition that can occur in an aircraft, where the plane spins around its vertical axis while maintaining a level or nearly level attitude (hence the term “flat”). Unlike a normal spin, where the aircraft nose is usually pointed downward and there is significant altitude loss, in a flat spin, the aircraft’s nose is more level with the horizon, and the rotation rate is typically much higher.

Key Characteristics of a Flat Spin:

Level Attitude: The aircraft remains relatively flat, with little to no pitch angle, while spinning around its vertical axis.
High Rate of Descent: Despite the level attitude, the aircraft experiences a rapid loss of altitude.
Control Surface Ineffectiveness: In a flat spin, the aerodynamic controls (rudder, ailerons, elevators) often become less effective or completely ineffective, making recovery extremely difficult.
Center of Gravity Shift: A flat spin can occur when the aircraft’s center of gravity is too far aft, which can exacerbate the spin and make recovery nearly impossible.

Causes of a Flat Spin:

Improper weight distribution: A center of gravity that is too far back can contribute to entering a flat spin.
Pilot error: Incorrect control inputs or failure to recover from an initial spin can lead to a flat spin.
Aircraft design: Some aircraft are more prone to flat spins due to their design characteristics.

Recovery:

Recovering from a flat spin is extremely difficult and often not possible, especially in older aircraft or those not designed with spin recovery in mind. Standard spin recovery techniques, such as reducing throttle, applying opposite rudder, and moving the control stick forward, may not work in a flat spin. In many cases, if a flat spin occurs, it can lead to a crash unless there is sufficient altitude and the pilot is exceptionally skilled or fortunate.

Due to its severity, a flat spin is a critical scenario in aviation, and pilots are trained to avoid the conditions that could lead to one.

The incident is now under investigation, with authorities looking into the causes of the crash, as no emergency was reported before the accident (Kaieteur News) (Evrim Ağacı).

The Brazilian Air Force and local authorities are investigating the incident to determine the exact cause of the crash.

Upon further investigation: reports are coming in about severe icing in the area where the airplane was flying. Icing degrades wing performance by making the shape less aerodynamic, while adding weight to the airplane, causing wings to lose the ability to generate lift, even with airflow. Rami Ismail also reported, in italics, that: Most airplanes, including the ATR72-500 incident aircraft type, are equipped with several anti-icing methods: pneumatic boots that can break the ice on the wing’s leading edge, electronic heating, or other methods. If used properly and according to procedures, anti-icing methods can help avert some of the worst effects of icing. If not, their efficiency often reduces to the point of not having any effect. Even with these tools, heavy icing is generally considered dangerous. Icing reduced the airplanes’ performance to the point of a stall – then the airplane would just dive straight at the ground. It would stall, and with the reduced performance the pilots might not be able fix that anymore. That would look like a nose-down dive.

Reporter at Windermere Sun wonders if climate change, warmer climate means higher humidity level, had contributed to the crash and if so what measures would need to be taken (such as all planes would need to be equipped with more efficient anti-icing device) for the future.