Tracking Tropical Storm/Hurricane This Week
Dear Friends & Neighbors,
National Hurricane Center’s 5-day track and intensity forecast cone of Atlantic AL132023 Hurricane Lee, Source: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:2023_NHC_AL132023_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png (Attribution: National Hurricane Center, Public Domain license: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Public_domain, Presented at: WindermereSun.com)
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Hurricane Lee officially strengthened to a Category 5 storm Thursday night and is looking evermore impressive on satellite imagery – still safely away from land. And while still expected to be a powerful storm, Lee has now weakened to a Category 3 strength. Interests in the Leeward Islands still should keep an eye on the storm’s development as it could impact the islands. Large ocean swells are likely to reach the Lesser Antilles, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by the weekend or into early next week, according to the National Hurricane Center. Hurricane Lee is a 105-mph system located about 285 miles northeast of the northern Leeward Islands, according to the hurricane center’s latest advisory. It’s moving west-northwest at 9 mph. At this time, no watches or warnings are in effect as it remains far away from land, in the video published on Sep 11, 2023, by 10 Tampa Bay, as “Tracking the Tropics: Hurricane Lee growing larger despite no rise in maximum sustained winds“, below:
For more details about Hurricane Lee, please refer to the excerpt from wikipedia, in italics, below:
Hurricane Lee is a powerful Cape Verde hurricane currently active in the Atlantic Ocean. The thirteenth named storm, fourth hurricane, and the third major hurricane of the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season, Lee formed from a tropical wave near Cabo Verde. It rapidly strengthened after formation and became a Category 5 hurricane on September 7. After being weakened by strong wind shear and also undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle, Lee is presently located north of the northern Leeward Islands as a Category 3 hurricane.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) began to monitor a tropical wave over West Africa early on September 1.[1] The wave moved offshore into the tropical Atlantic Ocean on September 2,[2] producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity, and began to gradually organize. An area of low pressure formed from the wave two days later to the west-southwest of Cabo Verde.[3] On September 5, the low became more organized, with multiple low-level bands developing and the formation of a well-defined center. Consequently, advisories were initiated on Tropical Depression Thirteen at 15:00 UTC that day.[4] Amid favorable conditions for intensification, which included warm sea surface temperatures, moderate wind shear, and moderate mid-level relative humidity,[5] the depression quickly strengthened into Tropical Storm Lee within a few hours.[6] Lee tracked west-northwestward, steered by a mid-level ridge located to its north, and continued to intensify as it became better organized, with increased convective banding, development of a central dense overcast, and formation of a ragged eye, evident in visible satellite imagery by the following afternoon. By 21:00 UTC on September 6, the system strengthened into a Category 1 hurricane[7] while located far to the east of the Northern Leeward Islands.[8] Explosive intensification began the next day, with Lee reaching Category 2 strength at 15:00 UTC,[9] before reaching Category 4 strength at 21:00 UTC.[10] A few hours later, a hurricane hunters mission into the storm found that it had reached Category 5 strength, and possessed a clear 17 mi-wide (28 km) eye surrounded by convective cloud tops with temperatures as low as −105 °F (−76 °C).[11] By 06:00 UTC on September 8, Lee’s maximum sustained winds reached 165 mph (270 km/h), an increase of 85 mph (140 km/h) in 24 hours, making it the third‑fastest intensifying Atlantic hurricane on record, behind only Felix in 2007 and Wilma in 2005.[12] During this same time period, the hurricane’s minimum barometric pressure fell to 926 mbar (27.34 inHg).[13]
Several hours later, however, an increase of southwesterly wind shear caused Lee’s eye to become cloud filled and the storm to become more asymmetric.[14] Lee then rapidly weakened to a low-end Category 3 hurricane by early on September 9.[15] Later that day, data from an evening hurricane hunters mission into the storm revealed that Lee was undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle and still being adversely affected by modest vertical wind shear; also observed were peak flight-level winds that were down from an earlier mission. As a result of these findings, the hurricane was downgraded to Category 2 at 03:00 UTC on September 10.[16] Afterwards, as the system was completing its eyewall replacement cycle, the wind shear began to abate, which permitted the new, larger-diameter eye to contract and to grow more symmetric; as a result, Lee intensified to Category 3 strength once again that same day.[17]
Current storm information
As of 11:00 a.m. AST (21:00 UTC) September 11, Hurricane Lee is located within 10 nautical miles of 23.5°N 63.5°W, about 350 miles (565 km) northwest of the northern Leeward Islands. Maximum sustained winds are 120 mph (195 km/h), with gusts up to 140 mph (220 km/h). The minimum barometric pressure is 948 mbar (27.99 inHg), and the system is moving west-northwest at 8 mph (13 km/h). Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (300 km) from the center.
A new system will form in the Atlantic this week, all while Hurricane Lee gets closer to Bermuda and Canada. All the major computers models show a new tropical disturbance becoming a hurricane next weekend, or into the following week. The atmospheric conditions are similar to what Hurricane Lee had, which means things are conducive for this to develop into a tropical storm and then hurricane. The next name is Nigel. It is too early to tell if this new system will move into the Caribbean or curve to the north. Please know I am watching it very carefully. Hurricane Lee will be close to Bermuda Thursday and Friday. The hope is the core of the hurricane winds stay just to the west. After that, Lee will move near Nova Scotia and Newfoundland. It is too early to know the impacts because the track is still uncertain. With that said, as Lee lifts to the north, it will enter cooler water and weaken, in the video published on Sep 10, 2023, by Mr. Weatherman, as “New System forming this Week...” below:
Latest information brings impacts to New England and eastern Canada, in the video published on Sep 11, 2023, by NEWS CENTER Maine, as “Where is Hurricane Lee expected to hit?” below:
KHOU 11 Meteorologist Pat Cavlin looks at Hurricane Lee’s forecast at 10:15 p.m. on Sunday, Sept. 10, 2023, in the video published on Sep 10, 2023, by KHOU 11, as “Hurricane Lee update: Where is the storm heading?” below:
Gathered, written, and posted by Windermere Sun-Susan Sun Nunamaker More about the community at www.WindermereSun.com
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