Sharing Clean Disruption NOW-Why Current Energy & Transportation System Will Be Obsolete By 2030
Dear Friends & Neighbors,
(Please click on red links & note magenta)
A terrific presentation by Tony Seba, Instructor in Entrepreneurship, Disruption, and Clean Energy, on explanation for Why Current Energy & Transportation Will be Obsolete by 2030 should not be missed by any one interested in present and future trend! It was presented as the keynote at the Swebank Nordic Energy Summit in Oslo, Norway, on March 17th, 2016. It is based on the book “Clean Disruption of Energy and Transportation“, asserting that four technology categories will disrupt energy and transportation by: 1. Battery/Energy Storage 2. Electric Vehicles 3. Self-Driving Vehicles 4. Solar Energy.
The outcome of the Clean Disruption is such that by 2030:
- All new vehicles will be electric
- All new vehicles will be autonomous (self driving)
- Oil will be obsolete
- Coal, natural gas, and nuclear will be obsolete
- Individual car ownership will be obsolete
- All new energy will be provided by solar (and wind)
Ford and GM are becoming mobility services companies in addition to EV services. GM is also investing $half a billion into Lyft (Uber’s competitor) and just purchased $1 billion worth of self driving cars company. Foxconn and various computer companies are also getting into EV market. EV (electrical vehicle) companies such as Nissan and Tesla are offering limited free EV charging networks. SV (self driving vehicle) Startup Volta is offering free EV charging in exchange for media rights at prime high-value properties. Ultimately, one may power one’s house with one’s car and vise versa. EV’s and SV’s are essentially Computer on Wheels and Power Plant on Wheel !About half of the world’s population are ready to receive SV’s (self driving vehicles)! About half of Uber rides are carpooling in San Francisco area. Parking spaces will become more efficiently utilized as power plants.
Solar energy has gone down in cost 200 times since 1970’s. Solar installations has doubled every 2 years since 1990’s. It will take 7 more doublings or 14 years before Solar Energy would become 100% of world’s energy. Since 1970’s, Solar PV has improved cost by three thousand times relative to most conventional forms of energy and its cost will continue to go down. Solar energy on roof tops, when unsubsidized, is just as cheap as conventional energy, that is what’s called the Grid Parity (which has already been reached in 47 states in the USA in 2016) and up to 80% of the global market by the end of 2017 (according to Deutsche Bank). The adoption curve of any technology throughout history has taken the form of S curve and will likely be the same for solar technology adoption. The tipping point for Solar to reach its full adoption, commented by Tony Seba, is what he calls the Solar God Parity, the Point of No Return regardless where one is anywhere on planet earth, the cost of producing energy through solar rooftop is cheaper than the cost of transmission. Mr. Seba anticipates the Solar God Parity will be reached by 2020, the point of disruption or tipping point. Utility scale solar in USA and elsewhere on earth, unsubsidized, has dropped to 5 cents/kWh in 2015 in Nevada and in Saudi Arabia at 4.9 cents/kWh. (consider: oil at 5.8 cents/kWh is equivalent to $10 per barrel). Cost of solar continues to drop. This is all happening right NOW!
Further interview with Tony Seba, below:
Here, in Windermere Sun, we look for ways to help our readers/viewers to be better prepared for the transition into our new Clean Energy Age. We will help you to find ways to reduce cost of living and develop new business models and formats in this Clean Energy Age through information and collaboration.
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